Natural Gas prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 1.44%, reaching Rs 310.4. This uptick was bolstered by enhanced flows to US liquefied natural gas export facilities and anticipations of unprecedented electricity demand, driven by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather across a significant portion of the United States. Despite a slight moderation in temperature forecasts, above-normal heat is anticipated to persist through mid-July, which is likely to sustain cooling demand and bolster natural gas consumption.

As reported by LSEG, average gas production in the US Lower 48 has decreased to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day in early July, down from 110 billion cubic feet per day in June. In contrast, total demand, which encompasses exports, is anticipated to rise from 105.8 billion cubic feet per day this week to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day next week. LNG export flows also improved to 17.8 bcfd in July, approaching the record monthly average of 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration, working gas in underground storage rose by 87 Bcf for the week ending June 26, bringing total inventories to 2,922 Bcf.

While storage levels are 23 Bcf lower than the previous year’s figures, they are 175 Bcf above the five-year average, suggesting that the market is sufficiently supplied. The EIA also maintained an optimistic long-term outlook, forecasting US dry gas production to rise to a record 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption and LNG exports are also expected to reach new highs over the next two years, reflecting strong structural demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 6.78% decline in open interest alongside a price increase of Rs 4.4. Immediate support is identified at Rs 306.2, with subsequent support at Rs 302.1, whereas resistance is established at Rs 313.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 316.1.