Crude oil concluded the trading session with a 0.78% increase, reaching Rs 8,151, as concerns regarding shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and persistent supply disruptions provided upward momentum for prices. Shipping through the strategic waterway experienced a slowdown as the majority of shipowners opted to bypass the route, influenced by contradictory statements from the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump asserted that the strait remained open, whereas Iran claimed it was closed. Iraq has also sanctioned mechanisms for the export of crude oil via specialised international and local companies, as well as through multiple export outlets, which could enhance supply availability.

US inventory data exhibited a mixed picture, as crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, experienced a decline of over 49 million barrels over the past 18 weeks. However, year-to-date stocks still registered an increase of 1.88 million barrels. The SPR experienced a further decline of 5.3 million barrels, bringing the total to 293.4 million barrels, which is approaching the widely recognised operational minimum range of 250–300 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by approximately 1.3 to 1.44 million barrels, whereas US crude production increased to 13.805 million barrels per day, representing an increase of 521,000 bpd compared to the same period last year.

EIA data indicated that crude inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, reaching a total of 428.8 million barrels, whereas petrol stocks saw a rise of 0.7 million barrels, totalling 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories experienced a reduction of 1.5 million barrels, bringing the total to 105.6 million barrels. Refinery crude runs saw an increase of 216,000 bpd, while refinery utilisation experienced a rise of one percentage point. Concurrently, net US crude imports decreased by 1.75 million bpd. OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downwards to 580,000 bpd, representing the fourth consecutive reduction. However, it has increased its outlook for demand growth in 2027.

Technically, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 9.24% increase in open interest to 12,420 contracts, alongside a price gain of Rs 63. Crude oil is currently encountering support at Rs 8,030, and a decline beneath this threshold may reveal Rs 7,908. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 8,245, and a sustained movement above this threshold could initiate a progression toward Rs 8,338.