Natural gas settled 0.25% higher at Rs 281.2, driven by unseasonably warm weather in parts of the Midwest and eastern United States, which increased cooling demand. This prompted power generators to utilise more gas to satisfy heightened air-conditioning needs. However, the market maintained equilibrium due to increasing production and anticipations of subdued demand in the future. LSEG data indicated that average gas output in the US Lower 48 has risen to 112.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, up from August’s peak of 112.2 bcfd. Meanwhile, average petrol demand in the Lower 48, inclusive of exports, is anticipated to decrease to 107.6 bcfd next week, down from 109.7 bcfd this week.
Gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, underscoring persistent strength in LNG demand. US working natural gas inventories increased by 30 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 28, reaching 3,214 Bcf. However, this figure is still 50 Bcf lower than the level recorded last year and 160 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf. The EIA anticipates that both US natural gas supply and demand will hit record levels by 2026. Dry gas production is anticipated to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, an increase from 107.6 bcfd in 2025. Concurrently, domestic consumption is expected to be 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027.
US LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, up from 15.1 bcfd in 2025, notwithstanding a minor downward adjustment attributed to Freeport LNG maintenance. Technically, the market continues to experience fresh buying, as evidenced by a 2.61% increase in open interest to 34,278, alongside a price gain of Rs 0.7, which suggests renewed participation. Natural gas is maintaining its position above the support level of Rs 277.3, and continued strength may propel prices toward the resistance level of Rs 284.4. A decisive breakout above Rs 284.4 may extend gains toward Rs 287.7, while a break below Rs 277.3 could weaken prices toward Rs 273.5.
