Copper prices concluded the trading session with a decline of 0.47%, settling at Rs 1,391. This downturn was primarily driven by a stronger dollar and a prevailing weaker macroeconomic sentiment, which overshadowed the renewed apprehensions regarding tightening availability on the LME. Uncertainty regarding potential US tariffs on refined copper imports has prompted notable stock fluctuations from LME warehouses, resulting in a decrease of available copper inventories by 11,925 tonnes to 106,950 tonnes. The recent withdrawals have reignited supply concerns following a period during which substantial warehouse deposits had alleviated inventory constraints. Lower oil prices, following a shift in US-Iran tensions from military confrontation toward economic pressure, provided some support to broader growth-sensitive metals by improving economic sentiment.

In China, general public budget expenditure rose by 1.3% year-on-year to CNY 16.29 trillion during the first seven months of 2026. Central government spending saw an increase of 6.2%, reaching CNY 2.48 trillion, while local government expenditure grew by 0.5% to CNY 13.81 trillion. This data underscores the ongoing fiscal support driven by the central government. UBS has upheld a positive perspective on copper, projecting that prices will ascend to $15,500 per tonne in the forthcoming quarters. In July, US importers acquired over 200,000 tonnes of refined copper, marking the highest monthly volume in at least 12 years. This surge indicates robust purchasing activity in anticipation of possible tariff adjustments.

The global refined copper market experienced a deficit of 60,000 tonnes in June, a significant shift from the 15,000-tonne surplus recorded in May, as reported by the International Copper Study Group. Nonetheless, the market sustained a surplus of 131,000 tonnes during the initial half of 2026, in contrast to a surplus of 114,000 tonnes in the same period the previous year. In June, refined copper production was recorded at 2.37 million tonnes, whereas consumption amounted to 2.43 million tonnes. China’s imports of unwrought copper and related products experienced a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, totalling 425,000 tonnes in July. For the period from January to July, imports decreased by 6.2%, amounting to 2.92 million tonnes.

In July, Chinese imports of copper ore and concentrate experienced a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, totalling 2.38 million tonnes. Conversely, refined copper production saw a modest increase of 1.3%, reaching 1.29 million tonnes. Technically, copper is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest increased by 8.48% to 11,169 while prices fell by Rs 6.6. Support is positioned at Rs 1,384.1, with a breach below possibly testing Rs 1,377.1, while resistance is identified at Rs 1,403, and a sustained advance above could aim for Rs 1,414.9.