Copper prices settled up 0.67% at Rs 1412.45, driven by expectations of a seasonal increase in Chinese demand that bolstered speculative buying. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, seeking clarity on potential refined copper tariffs. Anticipations regarding inventory replenishment in China in advance of the September 25 holiday and the October 1-7 National Day break contributed further support. The Yangshan copper premium reached $124 per tonne last week, its highest in nearly four years, before easing to $119, indicating firm demand for imported metal.

Available copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell to 133,725 tonnes after 9,600 tonnes were cancelled in Asia. Concurrently, the LME cash copper premium increased to $26 per tonne, reversing from a $86 discount observed on September 14. Chilean copper output experienced a decline of 9.4% in July. Codelco’s production decreased by 5%, totalling 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida saw a more significant drop of 22.1%, producing 89,400 tonnes. In contrast, Collahuasi reported an increase of 12.3%, reaching 38,400 tonnes. In July, Peru’s copper production experienced a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, reaching 236,515 tonnes.

For the period from January to July, the output rose by 2.2%, totalling 1.6 million tonnes. The global refined copper market transitioned to a deficit of 60,000 tonnes in June, a notable shift from the 15,000-tonne surplus observed in May. Nevertheless, the first half of the year still reflected a surplus of 131,000 tonnes in the market. Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased to 382,000 tonnes in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July. For the period from January to August, imports experienced a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, totalling 3.30 million tonnes.

Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 12.19% decline in open interest to 7,579, alongside a price increase of Rs 9.4. Copper is currently finding support at Rs 1400.7, and a sustained breach below this level may result in a test of Rs 1388.8. On the upside, resistance is at Rs 1422.2, and a decisive move above it could open the way toward Rs 1431.8.