Crude oil prices experienced a notable increase of 3.39%, concluding at Rs 8,723, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and new supply disruptions. Incidents of gunfire targeting several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the impasse in U.S.–Iran negotiations, have intensified apprehensions regarding the security of a crucial global oil transit corridor. Iran’s position on maintaining the closure of the strait in light of current U.S. naval operations has exacerbated supply risks, with potential demand disruptions projected at 4–5 million barrels per day, especially affecting Asian markets.

Supply-side pressures have also escalated. Russia is anticipated to reduce production by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day in April and suspend specific exports through the Druzhba pipeline starting in May. Saudi Arabia’s production has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2020, attributed to disruptions stemming from conflict. U.S. production exhibited a slight uptick, yet the inventory data revealed a nuanced scenario—crude stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories experienced more significant-than-anticipated reductions, suggesting robust end-user demand.

China’s import trends exhibited resilience, characterized by increased inflows from Russia and Brazil, despite a notable decline in shipments from Saudi Arabia. In the interim, OPEC has made a marginal adjustment to its global demand forecast for the second quarter, attributing this to transient weakness associated with geopolitical uncertainties. However, it anticipates a rebound in demand during the latter half of the year.

The market exhibits renewed buying interest, evidenced by a 1.78% increase in open interest, reaching 12,265. Immediate support is identified at Rs 8,372, with additional downside potential at Rs 8,021. Resistance is established at Rs 8,942, and a breakout beyond this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 9,161.