Copper prices rose by 0.07% to settle at Rs 1293.35, supported by constricting near-term supply dynamics as global smelters engage in a focused maintenance period during the second quarter. The seasonal disruption, coupled with declining inventories in essential exchanges, has provided fundamental backing to prices. Moreover, the restocking initiatives in China ahead of the Labor Day holiday have strengthened short-term demand sentiment. The International Copper Study Group projects that the global refined copper market will shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons by 2026, with an anticipated increase to 377,000 metric tons in 2027. This transition can be primarily ascribed to a slowdown in demand expansion coupled with an increase in secondary production.

Global refined consumption is anticipated to rise by 1.6% in 2026, largely propelled by a 1.9% increase in demand from China, while Europe and Japan persist in demonstrating lackluster growth. On the production side, refined output is expected to rise modestly by 0.4% in 2026, with a more significant acceleration anticipated in 2027 as new capacity comes online. Inventory trends demonstrate a varied performance. The stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange witnessed a notable decrease of 16.3%, indicative of a contraction in domestic supply.

At the same time, COMEX inventories rose to a record 603,745 short tons, a development linked to inflows into the U.S. spurred by arbitrage opportunities. During March, China saw a 10.9% decrease in imports of unwrought copper. Nonetheless, domestic refined output registered a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, reaching 1.33 million tons. Globally, mine supply demonstrates a notable lack of uniformity, highlighted by Peru’s 2.9% increase in output, in stark contrast to the declines reported by Chile and major operations like Escondida.

From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing a resurgence in buying activity, as indicated by an 11.39% rise in open interest to 10,564, alongside modest price increases. Copper is presently facing immediate support at Rs 1287.8, with a possible downside extension to Rs 1282.3. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 1297.8, and a breakout above this threshold may propel prices towards Rs 1302.3.