Gold prices declined by 0.64%, closing at Rs 151,721, as market participants exercised caution in anticipation of significant global central bank meetings. Ongoing robustness in crude oil prices has heightened apprehensions that inflationary dynamics may compel a more aggressive approach from policymakers, thereby constraining potential gains in bullion. Market participants are meticulously observing policy signals from leading economies, as well as geopolitical dynamics, especially the persistent tensions in the Middle East. The prospects for de-escalation have diminished as diplomatic initiatives yielded only marginal advancements, thereby amplifying uncertainty.
On the demand side, China maintained robust structural support. In March, gold imports experienced a significant increase, reaching 162 tonnes, marking the highest level in two years. Concurrently, the central bank continued its purchasing trend for the 17th consecutive month, elevating total reserves to an unprecedented 2,313 tonnes. Switzerland’s gold exports experienced a significant increase, indicative of heightened shipments to the UK and China.
Nonetheless, Indian demand exhibited a degree of restraint despite the festive purchasing associated with Akshaya Tritiya, although premiums increased as a result of supply disruptions stemming from import delays. Globally, central bank activity exhibited a mixed pattern, with net purchases totaling 25 tonnes reported in the early part of the year, despite reductions in holdings by certain countries such as Turkey. Furthermore, the reduction of margins by CME Group could enhance market liquidity.
From a technical perspective, the market reveals an emergence of selling pressure, as evidenced by a 7.95% increase in open interest to 8,718, which suggests the establishment of new short positions. Gold is presently encountering support at Rs 150,970; a decline beneath this level may challenge Rs 150,220. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 152,740, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 153,760.