Gold yesterday settled higher by 0.74% at Rs 153,663 as traders evaluated yet another setback in Middle East peace negotiations alongside increasing apprehensions regarding sustained geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s recent counterproposal intended to resolve the 10-week conflict, labeling it as “totally unacceptable.” In turn, Iran asserted that it would “never bow,” thereby heightening uncertainty in global financial markets. The escalation has resulted in an increase in crude oil prices, heightening concerns regarding inflationary pressures and the wider economic implications of a prolonged energy shock. Market sentiment was additionally shaped by updated Federal Reserve rate expectations from leading brokerages.
Sources anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current stance until 2026, with rate reductions anticipated only in July and September of 2027. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the initial rate cut to December 2026. Investors are currently scrutinizing forthcoming US inflation data for further policy guidance, as markets are pricing in an approximate 31% likelihood of an interest rate increase. Focus is shifting to the anticipated summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, where discussions are expected to encompass Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and critical minerals. In India, the demand for physical gold has shown a lack of vigor, as elevated prices have deterred new purchasing activity.
Dealers indicated discounts reaching $15 per ounce and premiums as high as $6 above official domestic prices. India’s gold imports for April are projected to decline to approximately 15 metric tons, marking a near 30-year low, attributed to unforeseen tax demands imposed on banks. Simultaneously, Chinese premiums held steady at $14–$20 per ounce, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council indicated that India’s investment demand for gold experienced a remarkable increase of 52% year-on-year, reaching 82 metric tons in the March quarter, thereby exceeding jeweler demand for the first time in recorded history.
In the first quarter of 2026, global gold demand experienced a year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching 1,230.9 metric tons, bolstered by robust purchases of bars, coins, and by central banks. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest holding steady at 9,206, while prices increased by Rs 1,133. Gold is currently finding support at Rs 151,965; should prices fall below this level, they may approach Rs 150,265. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 154,900, with a potential upward movement likely to challenge Rs 156,135.